6 min read
Earlier this week, the women kicked off the WTA Finals in Guadalajara, Mexico, and starting this Sunday, the men will battle in Turin, Italy. Just like the women's year-end event, the men are split into two groups (the Green Group and the Red Group).
Novak Djokovic (UTR Rating 16.26) leads the Green Group after clinching the year-end No. 1 ATP ranking for the seventh time, while Daniil Medvedev (UTR Rating 16.16) is the highest-rated player in the Red Group.
The Red Group will be up first on Sunday, followed by the Green Group playing on Monday. The round-robin group stage will be followed by knockout semifinals with the final will take place on Nov. 21.
Now it's time to take take a closer look at the groups with help from Universal Tennis INSIGHTS, a prediction and analytics application.
Red Group (UTR Rating)
Daniil Medvedev (16.12)
Alexander Zverev (16.04)
Matteo Berrettini (15.83)
Hubert Hurkacz (15.74)
Medvedev is the second-highest rated player in the tournament and enters as the defending champion. Last year, the 25-year-old Russian went a perfect 5-0 with wins over Djokovic, Rafael Nadal, and Dominic Thiem. In 2021, he has had his best year yet, winning four titles including his first Grand Slam, over Djokovic, at the US Open.
Medvedev opens against Hubert Hurkacz (UTR Rating 15.74) in the first match on Sunday, and INSIGHTS gives Medvedev a sizeable chance of winning at 72%. He has a better record versus common opponents, a higher UTR Rating, and a better three-month Trending UTR Rating. Medvedev’s win-loss record this year has been an impressive 54-12.
Medvedev is also the favorite against Matteo Berrettini (UTR Rating 15.83) with a 72% chance in their head-to-head INSIGHTS comparison. Berrettini is making his second appearance at the year-end championships, but it’s the first time the event is being held in Italy, his home country.
“I feel the pressure, but it’s a good pressure. It’s so nice to be here,” Berrettini told press. “I know that the crowd is going to be on my side, and I really cannot wait to step on the court.”
According to INSIGHTS, Alexander Zverev (UTR Rating 16.04) will give Medvedev the most trouble. The German has a 43% chance of beating the Red Group favorite and has had a comparable season with a 55-14 record and five titles (though he won no majors, he did leave the Tokyo Olympics with a gold medal).
Green Group (UTR Rating)
Novak Djokovic (16.26)
Stefanos Tsitsipas (15.96)
Andrey Rublev (15.72)
Casper Ruud (15.67)
Djokovic is the clear-cut favorite in his group as he looks to win his sixth year-end title (to pull even with Roger Federer). He won three majors in 2021, falling just short of the calendar-year Grand Slam in New York. He comes into Turin after winning in Paris (over Medvedev) for his record-setting 37th ATP Masters 1000 title.
The 34-year-old Serbian will open against Casper Ruud (UTR Rating 15.67), who is making his ATP Finals debut and is the first Norwegian to qualify for the year-end championships. Djokovic has a sizeable advantage over Ruud with INSIGHTS giving him an 80% chance of beating the 22-year-old after he won their only career meeting in Rome this year.
Djokovic has similar odds of winning against Andrey Rublev (UTR Rating 15.72) with 78%. Remarkably, the two have never faced off before. Rublev will have his hands full with his first opponent, Stefanos Tsitsipas (UTR Rating 15.96).
Tstisipas has lost to Djokovic two times this season, most notably in the Roland Garros final. According to INSIGHTS, Djokovic has the edge at 68% with a higher Trending UTR Rating and better record versus common opponents. But both have scored the same best win (Nadal) and though Tsitsipas has more wins this year (55-18), Djokovic’s win-loss percentage is better (48-6).
This week is the first time the year-end event is being held in Italy after 11 years at the O2 Arena in London. The men will be competing at the Pala Alpitour indoor arena every November through 2025.
•UTR Ratings and INSIGHTS probabilities as of 9 a.m. EST, Nov. 12, 2021.