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On Tuesday in Paris, the first round of Roland Garros raced to completion. Men’s No. 4 seed Stefanos Tsitsipas (UTR Rating 15.96) survived a scare, while No. 2 seed Daniil Medvedev (16.07) cruised. In women's action, 2018 champion Simona Halep (13.18) and No. 7 seed Aryna Sabalenka (12.95) needed three sets to advance.
Let’s take a closer look at what to expect from the second round with assistance from Universal Tennis INSIGHTS,
Seeds Survive Scares
Tsitsipas was a late finish on Tuesday night, coming back from two sets down to defeat talented 20-year-old Lorenzo Musetti. The Greek will get a day to recover before taking on qualifier Zdenek Kolar, where INSIGHTS has him favored at a whopping 97%. Kolar, a 25-year-old Czech, had never won a Grand Slam main-draw match until this week.
Medvedev eased past Facundo Bagnis with the loss of just six games. He’s safely at the bottom of the draw, far from the stacked top half that features Novak Djokovic (16.16), Rafael Nadal (16.13), and Carlos Alcaraz (16.11). Next up for Medvedev is Laslo Djere (15.38), against whom he’s heavily favored to advance at 83%.
No. 19-seeded Halep lost a set in a 6-4, 4-6, 6-1 win over lucky loser Nastasja Schunk, who’s just 18 years old and making her Grand Slam debut. The Romanian will take on another teenager next, 19-year-old Zheng Qinwen. New to the tour, Zheng appeared in the second round at the Australian Open this year in her own Grand Slam debut.
Sabalenka dropped the first set to Frenchwoman Chloe Paquet before recovering to set up a second-round against Madison Brengle (12.36). INSIGHTS has Sabalenka favored at 78% but Brengle is capable of huge upsets on her best days (she has wins over the likes of Petra Kvitova, Serena Williams, and Sofia Kenin).
Second-Round Matches to Keep an Eye On
Danielle Collins (12.88) is seeded No. 9 and she made the Top-10 INSIGHTS favorites to win the entire tournament. The American defeated lucky loser Viktoriya Tomova 6-0, 6-4 and will play compatriot Shelby Rogers (12.42) next. Roger and Collins split their two career meetings in 2021, with Rogers beating Collins in Cincinnati due to a second-set retirement. Still, Collins is favored by INSIGHTS at 75% with the higher UTR and trending UTR Rating, better record versus common opponents, and better 15-month win-loss record (50-20).
Another exciting second-rounder in the women’s field will see No. 13 seed Jelena Ostapenko (12.96) battle against Frenchwoman Alize Cornet (12.46). Both players bring a lot of personality and energy to the court, and Cornet is a fan favorite, especially in Paris. Ostapenko won Roland Garros in 2017 when she was just 20 years old. She’s favored at 75%, per INSIGHTS, thanks partly due to a win over Cornet in Luxembourg last year.
In men’s action, No. 24 seed Francis Tiafoe (15.37) will have his work cut out for him against former ATP world No. 7 David Goffin (15.35). INSIGHTS is expecting a close one with 50/50 odds. They haven’t faced off in over two years, though Goffin leads their head-to-head record 3-1. Notably, Goffin’s clay-court UTR Rating is higher than Tiafoe’s at 15.44 compared to 15.31.
•UTR Ratings and INSIGHTS probabilities as of 8 a.m. EST, May 25, 2022.