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On Saturday, Ashleigh Barty (UTR Rating 13.31*) fulfilled her childhood dream of winning Wimbledon by beating Karolina Pliskova (UTR Rating 12.80), 6-3, 6-7(4), 6-3. Universal Tennis INSIGHTS had Barty as the favorite from the very start of the Grand Slam, and she made good on her 77% win probability in the final. She’s the first Australian woman to win Wimbledon since Evonne Goolagong in 1980.
Novak Djokovic (UTR Rating 16.14) took to Centre Court against Matteo Berrettini (UTR Rating 15.67) on Sunday to move one step closer to a calendar-year Grand Slam. Favored by INSIGHTS at 73%, the Serbian closed out a 6-7(4), 6-4, 6-4, 6-3 win to pick up sixth Wimbledon and 20th Grand Slam overall. He’s now tied with Rafael Nadal and Roger Federer for the most majors.
When all of the matches were said and done, INSIGHTS accuracy came out at 73% (93/127) for the women’s draw and 75% (94/126) for the men’s draw.
Before the start of the fortnight, INSIGHTS helped preview the tournament by predicting the win probability of each player. Relying on UTR Ratings, head-to-head meetings, win-loss records against common opponents, and more, INSIGHTS delivered innovative analysis and accurate predictions for every player and every match.
Top seeds Djokovic and Barty led the pack with Djokovic starting out with a 36% chance and Barty with 24%. With every passing round, their win probability was recalibrated but both World No. 1’s maintained a sizeable lead over the rest of the competition.
That doesn’t mean there weren’t sizable obstacles. INSIGHTS called special attention to No. 7 seed Berrettini as one of eight men to have a greater than 1% chance at 6%, just behind the Top 4 seeds. The 25-year-old would tear through the draw to become the first Italian to contest a Wimbledon final.
INSIGHTS also singled out Karolina Muchova (UTR Rating 12.94) with a 2% chance of winning Wimbledon (she was one of 14 women with a greater than 1% chance). The Czech would make a run to the quarterfinals after having never played a main-draw match at the All England Club. In the third round, INSIGHTS gave Muchova the edge against Roland Garros finalist Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova, who she would beat in straight sets.
The first significant upset was Frances Tiafoe (UTR Rating 15.17) ousting No. 2 seed Stefanos Tsitsipas (UTR Rating 15.99) in the first round. Though INSIGHTS predicted a Tsitsipas win at 86%, it was one of the few opening matches involving high seeds with an under 90% probability.
Though Sofia Kenin (UTR Rating 12.58) was seeded No. 4, INSIGHTS had her at less than 1% chance of winning her second Grand Slam so it wasn’t that all that shocking when she lost to Madison Brengle (UTR Rating 12.11) in the second round.
Sebastian Korda (UTR Rating 15.52) had a fortnight to remember by reaching the fourth round. INSIGHTS correctly predicted the 20-year-old American’s first-round upset No. 15 seed Alex de Minaur with a 56% win probability, as well as his win over No. 22 seed Daniel Evans. INSIGHTS also correctly called 19-year-old Marta Kostyuk’s win over No. 17 seed Kiki Bertens at 78%.
There were quite a few unseeded names going deep, including veterans Viktorija Golubic, Sorana Cirstea, Liudmila Samsonova, Ajla Tomljanovic, and wild card Emma Raducanu (UTR Rating 11.93). When Cirstea was gearing up to take on two-time major champion Victoria Azarenka, INSIGHTS gave her a 25% chance of winning. She’d advance in three sets but fall to 18-year-old Raducanu.
No one saw Raducanu’s run coming and her win over Marketa Vondrousova (UTR Rating 12.69) was the biggest upset per UTR Ratings (-0.76) and the Brit was dubbed the best performer for playing like a UTR Rating of 12.26 across four matches.
Canadians made huge waves in the men’s draw with Felix Auger-Aliassime (UTR Rating 15.44) making his first Grand Slam quarterfinal, and Denis Shapovalov (UTR Rating 15.46) making his semifinal debut. INSIGHTS had Shapovalov pegged as the winner over Karen Khachanov (UTR Rating 15.34), who he beat in five dramatic sets in the quarterfinals.
INSIGHTS expected Berrettini to end Auger-Aliassime’s run, and he did in four sets, and also gave him a 75% chance of beating Hubert Hurkacz (UTR Rating 15.30), which he also did in four. Hurkacz was responsible for ousting Roger Federer, who had just a 1% chance, per INSIGHTS, of winning it all.
Ultimately, Djokovic and Barty followed through on their No. 1 seedings but many other players enjoyed breakthroughs, pulled off upsets, and made significant progress. INSIGHTS was there following all of the action for every step of the way and will continue to deliver in-depth innovative analysis as the tours move onto the Olympics and next month, the US Open.
•UTR Ratings and INSIGHTS probabilities as of 2 p.m. EST, July 11, 2021.