5 min read
Wimbledon’s final Manic Monday had it all, with 16 matches scheduled across the busiest day of the fortnight. With one men's fourth-round match still to finish (Daniil Medvedev vs. Hubert Hurkacz), let’s turn all of the attention to the women’s field as they will take to the court on Tuesday for the quarterfinals.
Top seed Ashleigh Barty (UTR Rating 13.31*) has long been favored by Universal Tennis INSIGHTS as the most likely to win her second Grand Slam. Her win probability stands at 33%, followed by No. 2 seed Aryna Sabalenka at 30%.
In the fourth round, Barty snapped Roland Garros champion Barbora Krejcikova’s 15-match win streak with a 7-5, 6-3 victory to reach her first Wimbledon quarterfinal.
“That was a tough match – Barbora has had an incredible year,” Barty said. “I’m just happy to come through in the end. I found some pretty good stuff when I needed it most, which is great.”
Barty has an obvious leg up against her next opponent, Ajla Tomljanovic, an unseeded 28-year-old Australian playing her first-ever Grand Slam quarterfinal. Tomljanovic was leading 6-4, 3-0 when British wild card Emma Raducanu was forced to retire with an illness. As the last match on Court No. 1 finishing up after 9 p.m., Tomljanovic will have little time to soak in her achievement. Per INSIGHTS, Barty is favored at 89% against Tomljanovic, dominating every category including UTR Ratings and record versus common opponents.
Let’s take a deeper dive into the quarterfinal matchups using INSIGHTS for closer analysis and predictions.
Angelique Kerber (UTR Rating 12.71) vs. Karolina Muchova (UTR Rating 12.92)
Experience trumped youth when 2018 champion Kerber ended 17-year-old Coco Gauff’s run 6-4, 6-4. Muchova, also a Wimbledon quarterfinalist in 2019, took out No. 30 seed Paula Badosa 7-6 (6), 6-4. The No. 19 seed has played some of the best tennis of her career this year as she seeks her second major semifinal of 2021 (she lost in Melbourne to Jennifer Brady).
Kerber, seeded No. 25, leads the head-to-head record against Muchova 2-0, although they haven’t played each other since early 2019. INSIGHTS gives Muchova the greater odds of winning at 62% with a higher UTR Rating, a better win-loss ratio over the last 15 months, and more wins against common opponents.
Ons Jabeur (UTR Rating 12.85) vs. Aryna Sabalenka (UTR Rating 13.18)
Jabeur continues to make history now as the first Arab or North African man or woman to reach a Wimbledon quarterfinal since 1974. The No. 21 seed notched a 5-7, 6-1, 6-1 comeback win over Iga Swiatek to book her second career Grand Slam quarterfinal appearance. Now the 26-year-old is looking to become the first-ever Arab to reach a major semifinal.
Despite her lofty seeding of No. 2, Sabalenka has never played a Grand Slam quarterfinal. She outslugged Elena Rybakina 6-3, 4-6, 6-3, and INSIGHTS gives her the advantage against Jabeur at 68%. The Belarusian has a higher UTR Rating, higher-rated best win (Barty), and better recent win-loss record.
“This is not my final goal,” Sabalenka said of her breakthrough. ”I'm trying to be happy but at the same time be focused and be ready for the next one because it's also not (an) easy match. Of course, I'm really happy I finally broke this wall.”
Karolina Pliskova (UTR rating 12.75) vs. Viktorija Golubic (UTR Rating 12.51)
Golubic, an unseeded 28-year-old from Switzerland, handled her Grand Slam Week 2 debut on Monday swimmingly by besting 2017 US Open finalist Madison Keys 7-6(1), 6-3. Before this run, Golubic’s best major showing was the third round of Wimbledon in 2019.
Pliskova ended wild card Liudmila Samsonova’s run in routine fashion 6-2, 6-3. The No. 8 seed is favored by INSIGHTS to reach the semifinals with a 64% chance of beating Golubic due to a higher UTR Rating and higher-rated best win (Elise Mertens). Golubic's biggest edge against the Czech is that she has played, and won, a lot more matches over the last 15 months, holding a 65-21 record compared to Pliskova’s 29-19.
•UTR Ratings and INSIGHTS probabilities as of 4 p.m. EST, July 5, 2021.