5 min read
Sunday marks a day of rest at Wimbledon with the last Middle Sunday before the tradition ends in 2022. It also marks the July 4th holiday, a celebration of America's Independence Day. All of this celebration and resting will be needed to prepare for Manic Monday, which will showcase all the men’s and women’s fourth-round matches.
Three stars have been carrying the U.S. flag: Cori Gauff (UTR Rating 12.80*), Sebastian Korda (UTR Rating 15.51), and Madison Keys (UTR Rating 12.61) have made it to Week 2 as the last remaining Americans left in the singles draws.
Frances Tiafoe kicked things off for the 34-player American contingent (21 women and 13 men) by stunning No. 2 seed Stefanos Tsitsipas in the very first round. He would run out of steam in the third round against Karen Khachanov (UTR Rating 15.26), Korda’s next opponent.
The American men have been highlighted by 20-year-old Korda’s spirited debut as he’s beaten two seeds, No. 15 Alex de Minaur and No. 22 Daniel Evans, to reach the fourth round. He’s favored to take out No. 25 seed Khachanov with Universal Tennis INSIGHTS giving him a 62% win probability.
Keys ousted No. 13 seed Elise Mertens and takes on unseeded Swiss Viktorija Golubic (UTR Rating 12.49) on Monday. She is the last American woman remaining in the bottom half of the draw with Sloane Stephens, Shelby Rogers, and Madison Brengle losing on Friday.
"I think everyone played good tennis. I know Sloane’s match today was incredibly tough," Keys told press on Friday. "There were also some great wins earlier in the tournament. Hopefully, I can keep it going for U.S. women."
INSIGHTS gives Keys a slight 56% edge over Golubic with higher UTR Ratings and a better record over common opponents. They’ve traded previous meetings with Golubic most recently beating Keys soundly in 2019 Fed Cup action.
Gauff will face 2018 champion Angelique Kerber (UTR Rating 12.69) in her second Wimbledon fourth round in as many appearances. The 17-year-old has been poised in three straight-set wins so far and INSIGHTS gives her a 57% chance of beating the 33-year-old German. Gauff has a higher UTR Rating and greater record versus common opponents.
Saturday's Featured Matches to Watch
Jabeur completed a 5-7, 6-3, 6-2 comeback win over 2017 champion Garbine Muguruza to become the first Arab woman to reach the second week of Wimbledon. Per INSIGHTS, the Tunisian has a 33% chance of ousting Swiatek, who dismissed Irina-Camilia Begu 6-1, 6-0. Before this week, Swiatek (the 2020 Roland Garros champion) had played just one match at Wimbledon (a first-round loss in 2019). The 20-year-old has made the round of 16 or better at 50% of her major appearances.
According to INSIGHTS, Shapovalov is favored to win at 53%. The No. 10 seed has the higher overall UTR Rating and Trending UTR Rating, while No. 8 seed Bautista Agut has the better recent best win (over Daniil Medvedev in Miami). Shapovalov survived a five-set test against Philipp Kohlschreiber in the first round before benefitting from a walkover from Pablo Andujar. He dismantled two-time champion Andy Murray in straights on Friday.
Wild card Emma Raducanu (UTR Rating 11.78) has really made the most of her Wimbledon debut by becoming the younger British female to reach the fourth round in the Open era. On Friday, she took out Sorana Cirstea 6-3, 7-5 to set up a clash with Ajla Tomljanovic (UTR Rating 12.37), a winner over Jelena Ostapenko.
“It's funny because when I was packing to come into the bubble, my parents were like, 'Aren't you packing too many sets of match kit?'” Raducanu told press. “I think I'm gonna have to do some laundry tonight but I think they have a laundry service at the hotel, so I'm all good guys!”
•UTR Ratings and INSIGHTS probabilities as of 4 p.m. EST, July 3, 2021.