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Day 5 at Roland Garros saw Daniil Medvedev (UTR Rating 16.07) continue his march along with tournament favorite Iga Swiatek (13.38) but also saw a number of seeds tumble out including Top-10 seeds Karolina Pliskova (12.51) and Danielle Collins (12.88), and 2018 champion Simona Halep (13.11).
Let’s take a closer at all of the action with extra intel from Universal Tennis INSIGHTS,
Seeds Continue to Falter
For the first time in nearly 50 years, only three of the Top 10 women's seeds are still in the draw in the third round. Halep’s fortnight in Paris came to a halt at the hands of 19-year-old Zheng Qinwen (12.54). The Romanian jumped out to a first-set lead but the Chinese teen bounced back to take out the 2018 Roland Garros champion, 2-6, 6-2, 6-1. Halep later revealed she suffered a panic attack in the third set.
Halep was not the only seed to fall on Thursday in Paris as No. 8 seed Pliskova, No. 9 seed Collins, No. 22 Nikoloz Basilashvili (15.29), and No. 24 seed Frances Tiafoe (15.37) also lost. Tiafoe fell to former Top-10 regular David Goffin (15.35) in four sets. It's the first time since 2009 that all 12 top seeds in the men's draw have made it to the Roland Garros third round.
Frenchwomen Keep Home Hopes Alive
Zheng will take on Frenchwoman Alize Cornet (12.48) for a place in the fourth round. In a match everyone expected to be both entertaining and ripe for an upset, Cornet defeated No. 13 seed Jelena Ostapenko (12.94), 6-0, 1-6, 6-3 on Thursday. Cornet is one of three Frenchwomen in the women's draw alongside 19-year-old Diane Perry (11.96) and wildcard Leolia Jeanjean (11.90).
Cornet has been to the fourth round of her home Grand Slam twice and reached her first major quarterfinal at this year's Australian Open. Zheng is making her Roland Garros debut while Cornet holds the record for most consecutive Grand Slam appearances. Per INSIGHTS, the 32-year-old has a 45% chance of getting past Zheng with Zheng having the better three-month trending UTR Rating and clay-court UTR Rating.
Jeanjean is ranked No. 227 on the WTA Tour (but No. 164 in the world according to UTR Rating) and stunned Pliskova 6-2, 6-2 for the best win of her carer to reach the third round of a Grand Slam for the first time. Before this week, the 26-year-old had not played a WTA tour-level main draw or competed against a Top-50 player. She'll face Irina-Camelia Begu (12.55) for a place in the round of 16 (where Begu is favored at 84%). Begu had a dramatic win over Ekaterina Alexandrova where her tossed racquet bounced into the crowd and scared (not hit) a small child. She was penalized with a fine.
Third-Round Matches to Watch
In a second-round women’s match flagged by INSIGHTS, American Shelby Rogers (12.44) defeated compatriot, No. 9-seeded Collins, 6-4, 6-3. She’ll look to take out No. 20 seed Daria Kastakina (12.82) for a place in the second week. Kasatkina has the edge at 73% with higher UTR Ratings and a better recent win-loss record (55-28).
No. 22-seeded Madison Keys (12.79) eased past Frenchwoman Caroline Garcia in two tight sets to set up a showdown with No. 16-seeded Elena Rybakina (12.81). This is one of the highest third-round matches in the top half with INSIGHTS giving Rybakina the slightest edge at 51% odds of advancing. Keys and Rybakina have nearly identical UTR Ratings but the Kazakh has the higher clay UTR Rating.
Making next-generation headlines, Danish 19-year-old Holger Rune (15.57) continued his Roland Garros breakthrough with a dominant win over veteran Henri Laaksonen. Rune had upset No. 14 seeded Denis Shapovalov in the first round. Next up for the youngster is an opportunity to go even farther as he faces unseeded Frenchman Hugo Gaston (15.04). Per INSIGHTS, Rune is favored at 79%.
While Medvedev made quick work of Laslo Djere on Thursday, he could be faced with a challenge from No. 28 seed Miomoir Kecmanovic (15.70). The 22-year-old Serbian is into his first third round in Paris and though Medvedev is favored at 68%, Kecmanovic is at his career-best ATP ranking of No. 31.
•UTR Ratings and INSIGHTS probabilities as of 8 p.m. EST, May 26, 2022.