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While some players are resting comfortably after booking their places in the Australian Open semifinals, eight players have battle to do on Wednesday (Tuesday in the U.S.). It's time to take a look at the remaining men's and women's quarterfinals with stats help from Universal Tennis INSIGHTS.
(27) Danielle Collins (12.97) vs. Alize Cornet (12.73)
Up first inside Rod Laver Arena on Day 11 is Collins as she looks to subdue an on-fire Cornet. In 63 Grand Slam appearances (and 60 in a row), Cornet is playing her first-ever quarterfinal at the age of 32. Her story this fortnight has been one of perseverance.
According to INSIGHTS, Collins is more likely to advance to the semifinals with 61% odds. She has the edge in every category including UTR Ratings, record versus common opponent, recent win-loss record, and best win. Notably, her trending UTR Rating is at 13.05 compared to Cornet's 12.70.
The 27-year-old American had her breakthrough at the Australian Open in 2020 with a semifinal run, and is more than comfortable inside Rod Laver Arena.
(7) Iga Swiatek (13.09) vs. Kaia Kanepi (12.52)
While Cornet has made headlines with her Cinderella story at 32, Kanepi is the oldest player in the draw at 36 and picked up an upset over No. 2 seed Aryna Sabelenka in a super tiebreak.
With each Grand Slam having a different rule for how the match can end, Kanepi was understandably a little confused against Sabalenka, thinking the tiebreak was to 7 when it's to 10.
I can only assume that tennis is the only major sport where athletes enter some of the biggest matches of their lives literally not knowing the scoring rules. https://t.co/xoalbsWNkN— Tumaini Carayol (@tumcarayol) January 24, 2022
Unlike Cornet, Kanepi has been to a major quarterfinal on six previous occasions. Her win over Sablenka was her ninth against Top-10 players at the Grand Slam level with her most previous upset over a No. 1-ranked Simona Halep at the 2018 US Open.
"Maybe I'm more focused on Grand Slams because I like big tournaments, and the Grand Slams are the most important tournaments," Kanepi said, attempting to explain her form at majors. "Also, I like that we have days off after matches. The Grand Slams are in big cities and nice atmosphere. I guess that's it."
Her 20-year-old opponent, Swiatek, won the 2020 French Open but is appearing in just her third quarterfinal. Per INSIGHTS, Swiatek has the 79% advantage with better stats in each category. They're similar in terms of win-loss record across the previous 15 months with Swiatek compiling a 48-16 record and Kanepi at 44-16. But Kanepi is ranked outside of the WTA Top 100 and has been playing some events on the ITF Tour.
Both women's quarterfinals mark first career meetings, adding a dose of uncertainty to the mix.
(4) Stefanos Tsitsipas (15.87) vs. (11) Jannik Sinner (15.82)
INSIGHTS expects a close match between these two with Tsitsipas at 52% compared to Sinner's 48%. They've played each other three times with Tsitsipas holding a 2-1 overall record and a most recent win, in Barcelona last year. Sinner has more wins versus common opponents and a higher three-month trending UTR Rating, at 15.82 compared to Tsitsipas' 15.72. Both have very similar win-loss records: Tsitsipas is 66-23 while Sinner is 65-25.
Sinner is just 20 years old and will be playing his second major quarterfinal, although notably he's dropped just one set. Tsitsipas was made to work for it against Taylor Fritz in the fourth round, battling across 3 hours and 23 minutes to beat the American in five sets.
"I'm very proud of myself
(2) Daniil Medvedev (16.23) vs. (9) Felix Auger-Aliassime (15.64)
The last quarterfinal of the tournament will feature Medvedev against young Canadian Auger-Aliassime. Auger-Aliassime's compatriot lost a five-set battle to No. 6 seed Rafael Nadal, making him the last Canadian hopeful. He's got a tough task ahead of him having never beaten Medvedev in three attempts, including suffering a 6-4, 6-0 loss at the ATP Cup just weeks ago.
INSIGHTS' head-to-head tool shows that Medvedev has 78% odds of advancing to his second straight major semifinal, and he's ahead of the 21-year-old in every category including trending UTR and recent record. The Russian has an impressive 80-15 record across the last 15 months. Auger-Aliassime also reached the semifinals of the 2021 US Open, which Medvedev went on to win for his first Grand Slam title.
The top halves of the draws already completed their quarterfinal rounds with INSIGHTS tournament favorite Nadal surviving a five-set match against Denis Shapovalov, an over-four-hour win he called "a little bit of a miracle" after stomach problems plagued him. In two days' time, he'll take on No. 7 seed Matteo Berrettini after the Italian outlasted Gael Monfils.
Top seed Ashleigh Barty dismantled No. 21 seed Jessica Pegula 6-0, 6-2 to set up a semifinal clash with unseeded Madison Keys. Keys upset No. 4 seed Barbora Krejcikova, 6-3, 6-2, as she continued her resurgent march through the draw. Barty has been the best performer per UTR Rating, performing like a 13.79 (+0.39) over her five matches.
•UTR Ratings and INSIGHTS probabilities as of 9 a.m. EST, Jan. 24, 2022.