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With Hubert Hurkacz completing a five-set win over No. 2 seed Daniil Medvedev on Tuesday, the Wimbledon men’s quarterfinals are locked in. Eight men will take the court on Wednesday including defending champion Novak Djokovic, eight-time winner Roger Federer, and first-time Grand Slam quarterfinalists Hurkacz, Felix Auger-Aliassime, and Marton Fucsovics.
Universal Tennis INSIGHTS has been boosting analysis of Wimbledon all tournament long with predictions and super head-to-head breakdowns. There’s a lot to digest about the men’s quarterfinal matchups so let’s jump right in.
(1) Novak Djokovic (UTR Rating 16.10*) vs. Marton Fucsovics (UTR Rating 15.27)
Djokovic has long been the INSIGHTS favorite to capture his 20th major at Wimbledon with his win probability increasing to 59%. INSIGHTS gives Djokovic a sizeable 88% chance of beating Fucsovics with the edge in every category including Trending UTR Rating, win-loss record versus common opponents, and 15-month match record (which is impressive at 59-9).
In the fourth round, Djokovic dispatched No. 17 seed Cristian Garin in straight sets, while Fucsovics upset No. 5 seed Andrey Rublev in a fifth set. Djokovic has lost just one set in London, his opening one against Jack Draper in the first round.
Djokovic is three wins away from a record-tying 20th major, and talk of a calendar-year Grand Slam is well underway.
“(I’m) very happy to be in this position to make history of the sport," Djokovic told press. "At the same time, I need to go about my everyday routines and everyday life on the tour pretty much the same way that I feel it has reaped a lot of success for me.”
(10) Denis Shapovalov (UTR Rating 15.43) vs. (25) Karen Khachanov (UTR Rating 15.29)
According to INSIGHTS, Shapovalov is favored at 60%. He has played Khachanov just once before, beating him in the 2019 Davis Cup semifinals. The 22-year-old Canadian is contesting his first Wimbledon quarterfinal but second overall after reaching the quarterfinals of last year’s US Open.
Khachanov ended Sebastian Korda’s breakthrough run with a dramatic 3-6, 6-4, 6-3, 5-7, 10-8 victory. The 25-year-old Russian has also played a Grand Slam quarterfinal before, at Roland Garros in 2019. Shapovalov had an easier go of it in the fourth round by topping Roberto Bautista Agut in straight sets. INSIGHTS reveals Shapovalov’s advantage in almost every category, including UTR Ratings and win-loss record over the last 15 months.
(7) Matteo Berrettini (UTR Rating 15.67) vs. (16) Felix Auger-Aliassime (UTR Rating 15.44)
Berrettini and Auger-Aliassime have only played each other once, in Stuttgart in 2019 with Berrettini beating the Canadian on his way to the title. Berrettini has won five ATP titles, including two this year, while Auger-Aliassime has been a finalist eight times.
INSIGHTS predicts Berrettini to come out on top with a 63% chance of reaching his second Grand Slam semifinal. The Italian has the higher UTR Ratings, better win-loss record, and more wins versus common opponents.
Berrettini’s girlfriend Ajla Tomljanovic reached the quarterfinals for the first time in her career. The tennis world is truly tiny: Auger-Aliassime’s girlfriend Nina Ghaibi is related to Tomljanovic.
“Both our girlfriends are cousins, so it just happens that we spend a lot of time together,” Auger-Aliassime told press. “He’s one of my best friends on the tour. He’s really a great guy; great person. I get along really well with him.”
In their respective fourth rounds, Auger-Aliassime was impressive in a five-set upset of No. 4 seed Alexander Zverev, while Berrettini had little trouble dispatching Ilya Ivashka.
(6) Roger Federer (UTR Rating 15.47) vs. (14) Hubert Hurkacz (UTR Rating 15.11)
Hurkacz had to close out his upset of Medvedev on Tuesday, giving him less time to rest before facing Federer, who dismissed Lorenzo Sonego in straight sets on Monday. INSIGHTS is siding with Federer with a 71% probability that the 39-year-old beats the Pole. Federer has the higher UTR Ratings and a 4-1 record against common opponents to Hurkacz’s 3-3.
Hurkacz will be playing his first Grand Slam quarterfinal while Federer is contesting his 58th. The Swiss has improved with every match at the All England Club.
“I'm taking the ball earlier,” he told press. “Obviously, I've gotten used to the conditions, gotten used to the balls, the court speed. I'm able to take more balls on the rise, on the half volley. All these little things make a difference at the end of the day.”
•UTR Ratings and INSIGHTS probabilities as of 12 p.m. EST, July 6, 2021.