Actual Performance vs Expectation
In every match, there is an expected outcome, based on the UTR difference between opponents. Let’s say you play an opponent with the following:
Same UTR: The algorithm would project that you win the same number of games as your opponent. If you win more games, then your rating will go up.
Lower UTR: If the system expects you to win 6-2, 6-2 but you end up winning 6-1, 6-1, then your rating would go up.
Higher UTR: If you are expected to lose 6-3, 6-3 but you lose 6-4, 6-4, your rating will go up.
Your UTR will go up or down based on how you perform vs. expectation.
After one match result, you receive a projected UTR (P). After approximately five matches, the rating becomes reliable. Your UTR continues to update as more matches are added.