Let’s take a deeper look at who may reach Saturday’s final.
Coco Gauff (6) vs. Karolina Muchova (10)
Both Gauff and Muchova have been in this position before, not in New York but in Paris. Gauff reached the Roland Garros final in 2022, while Muchova made it that far earlier this year.
According to INSIGHTS, Gauff has the edge at 60%, having scored a win over the Czech just last month. On her way to the Cincinnati title, Gauff defeated Muchova in straight sets 6-3, 6-4. Gauff’s UTR Ratings (overall and hard court) are higher than Muchova’s and her three-month trending is even higher at 13.02.
Gauff’s most impressive win on her road to the semifinals was 6-0, 6-2 route of Jelena Ostapenko in the quarterfinals. Muchova similarly dominated Sorana Cirstea 6-0, 6-3 in her quarterfinal bout. Cistea, seeded No. 30, is the highest seed Muchova has faced.
Aryna Sabalenka (2) vs. Madison Key (17)
Six years ago, Keys reached the US Open final only to fall to her compatriot Sloane Stephens in a one-sided affair. Now, she’s back into the semifinals and INSIGHTS expects her to have an uphill battle ahead, giving Sablenka the higher odds of moving on at 56%.
Their most recent meeting took place at Wimbledon with Sabalenka defeating Keys 6-2, 6-4.
Sabalenka has not been tested yet this fortnight as she has yet to lose a set. The most games she has given up in one set was against No. 23 seed Zheng Qinwen in the quarters. Keys has been cruising against her previous two opponents, Wimbledon champion Marketa Vondrousova and No. 3 seed Jessica Pegula.
The women's semifinals begin at 7 p.m. EST inside Arthur Ashe Stadium.